Why the apology is not known. Possibly Mr Biren Singh began to feel the pressure. Days after violence in Jiribam, an area that had remained calm in the past, the NPP, an ally in the BJP-led NDA government with six MLAs withdrew support
History, they say, has a habit of repeating itself. But not always.
On June 23, 2023, after nearly two months of Manipur’s worst ethnic conflict between the Meitei and Kuki communities, chief minister N. Biren Singh headed for Raj Bhavan in Imphal to submit his resignation to the governor. But the road was blocked by Meira Paibis, Manipur’s powerful all-women’s group, who purportedly forced the chief minister to tear up his resignation letter and throw it away.
This dramatic history did not repeat itself last week.
On Friday, hundreds of Meira Paibis gathered near the Imphal airport, not to block the road to stop Mr Biren Singh from flying to New Delhi to resign. Far from it. Blaming him for a spate of arrests of village volunteers (VVs), young men who signed up as members of village defence groups in the aftermath of the May 3, 2023 violence, the women demanded that he should resign at once.
Two days later, on Sunday, February 9, Mr Biren Singh went to New Delhi and put in his papers.
It is not as if the Meira Paibi protest was the last straw that broke Biren Singh’s back; they had been protesting against the crackdown by the AFSPA-armed Central and state police forces on the VVs for months. But Friday’s protest was possibly just the latest in a concatenation of circumstances that left him no option. With 250 people dead and 60,000 displaced in the bloodbath that followed May 3, 2023, Biren Singh would have known his fate was sealed.
The BJP and Amit Shah certainly gave N. Biren Singh a long rope.
Back in 2023, after a court order backed a Meitei demand for ST-status -- like the Kukis, the violence that erupted was unprecedented. Kukis living in Imphal were attacked, killed and chased out of the valley dominated by Meiteis who make up over 50 per cent of the state’s population and dominate the Imphal Valley, sprawling over 10 per cent land in the state; the Kukis, less than half the number of Meiteis and scattered over the hills of Manipur covering 90 per cent of the state, were outnumbered in the valley. Meiteis who lived in the Kuki- dominated hills were not spared.
Given Mr Biren Singh’s failure to contain violence, the most obvious step for the Centre and the BJP to take after May 3, 2023, if not immediately but certainly within weeks, was to sack the chief minister for inaction and incompetence, for failure to stop the looting of arms from police armouries, for letting Manipur turn into a war zone divided so sharply on ethnic lines they seem beyond erasure. There are also reports that armed groups of nationalist Meitei youth who were allowed to run wild, like Aramboi Tenggol and Meitei Leipun, had Mr Biren Singh’s blessings. But for still unfathomed and unexplained reasons neither the BJP nor the Centre acted.
Concatenation of circumstances: Then, out of the blue, on New Year’s Eve, Mr Biren Singh said “sorry” to the people of Manipur. “This entire year has been very unfortunate. I feel regret and I want to say sorry to the people of the state for what is happening till today, since last May 3. Many people lost their loved ones. Many people left their homes. I really feel regret. I would like to apologise.”
Why the apology is not known. Possibly Mr Biren Singh began to feel the pressure. Days after violence in Jiribam, an area that had remained calm in the past, the NPP, an ally in the BJP-led NDA government with six MLAs withdrew support. The BJP had a majority of 37 in the 60-member House. But seven Kuki BJP MLAs had already distanced themselves. So, the numbers began to look shaky.
Then dissensions began within the BJP, with around a dozen MLAs cosying up to Manipur Assembly Speaker Thokchom Satyabrata Singh and state minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh, all of them disenchanted with Biren Singh’s handling of the 21-month-old crisis. They began frequenting the BJP headquarters in Delhi. Some even went to the PMO.
Two other factors combined. The Manipur Tapes case -- audio recordings which a Kuki group claims establishes Biren Singh’s role in the violence in the state. The Supreme Court on February 3 had asked the CFSL to confirm by March 24 if the voice on the tapes is indeed that of Biren Singh. A confirmation could put Biren Singh behind bars.
Meanwhile, the Congress, which has five MLAs in Manipur, announced a no-trust motion against Biren Singh on February 10. Rattled and unsure about how many MLAs would stand by him, Biren Singh called a meeting of NDA MLAs last week. When only 20 MLAs showed up, he knew his time was up.
The BJP leadership in New Delhi didn’t try to dissuade him. The plug was pulled.
Kuki-Zo reaction: What next? President’s Rule is a distinct possibility. Or a new BJP chief minister, someone from the dissident group. Satyabrata Singh or Khemchand Singh are both in the running. If no consensus is reached on an alternative, then a prolonged spell of a suspended Assembly with Biren Singh as the caretaker chief minister. If neither work, then President’s Rule.
In all this uncertainty, one thing is certain: the Kuki-Zo-Hmar group’s determination to stick to its demand for a separate autonomous administration of the hill areas that the community dominates.
For the tribal community, Mr Biren Singh’s resignation is too late and two little. Another BJP chief minister in his place would merely be old wine in a new bottle. The Kuki group would rather see President’s Rule imposed. At least then the governor would be running the state and not the BJP.
At least they could start using Imphal airport. Today, if Kukis want to go to New Delhi or elsewhere, they have to drive to Aizawl airport in neighbouring Mizoram. That is a 12-hour drive from Churachandpur and the cost per passenger in a taxi is Rs 3,500. Why not use Imphal airport, which is much closer? Unsafe, say the Kukis. We would be killed for venturing into Meitei territory.
There are some Kuki optimists who hope that Mr Biren Singh’s exit could finally open the door to a dialogue on the way forward for the bitterly estranged ethnic groups of Manipur. But that could be months away. In a few months, Manipur’s tragedy will turn two. Come what may, that is one slice of history that should never be allowed to repeat itself.
