Shikha Mukerjee | Row over delimitation: Will it alter the federal balance?
Over the years, there has been a growing demand for a more representative legislature at the Centre and in the states
Into the perpetually agitated political ecosphere of Indian politics, an increase in volatility by the anticipated effect of a fresh delimitation of constituencies in states like Opposition-ruled Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Telangana, apprehensive of a reduction of the number of parliamentary seats relative to the percentage of seats these states have now, seems to have been deliberately seeded to initiate a new controversy. Like a whisper campaign, it is uncertain who tipped off chief minister M.K. Stalin that the state may lose eight of its 39 parliamentary seats, that is its Lok Sabha strength would be reduced by one-fifth.
The delimitation row is intriguing; the TN chief minister framed it as a “punitive” and “unjust” measure as South Indian states “have diligently followed the Union government’s policies to control population growth”. When K. Annamalai, the BJP’s rising star, accused Mr Stalin of creating “fear among the public” to divert attention from the ideological battle that has erupted between the state and the Narendra Modi government over the three-language policy and imposition of Hindi by making it mandatory, a plausible cause has emerged to explain one part of the puzzle over the timing of the delimitation issue.
Instead of jumping the gun, chief ministers Stalin, Siddaramaiah and Revanth Reddy would be better off seizing the opportunity to shout out that it’s not them but the Modi government that seems in a great hurry to get delimitation going. The 84th Amendment adopted by the Atal Behari Vajpayee government in 2002 had set a target date for the next delimitation after the 2031 Census. The amendment kept the old freeze of 545 seats for the Lok Sabha going till 2026. If the BJP wants to increase the number of Lok Sabha seats, it must do so through another constitutional amendment.
Instead of kite-flying, the Opposition-ruled states may gain some political advantage by running their own campaign demanding timelines for the Census and busting the rumour that delimitation would be done before the 2029 Lok Sabha polls when the BJP hopes to strengthen its dominance over Indian politics with an unprecedented fourth successive win. The apprehension that states like Tamil Nadu would lose seats would be true only if the Centre decides to “kick the can down the road”, that is, keep the 543-seat freeze going.
If the Modi government wants delimitation to begin before 2031, it has to get the deferred Census going. It hasn’t done so yet. The problem is the Modi government’s discomfort with data can be seriously harmful to the delimitation process. If the Census is actually done in 2026, the data for delimitation will not be available till 2028 at the earliest.
The Tamil Nadu versus Centre or Opposition-run states vs BJP tussle, however the dispute is framed, can be handled in other ways. It’s a bit like a mischief-maker chucking a stone at a hornet’s nest, knowing well the hornets will interpret the stone as an attack and go on a counter-offensive. The fundamentals of delimitation of seats are simple: every one of the past four delimitation exercises have been contentious.
Every delimitation exercise follows from legislation passed by the Lok Sabha initiating the process, including appointment of a Delimitation Commission. The legislation sets the timeline, whenever adopted by the BJP and its allies. It will also reveal the Modi government’s plan by laying down the terms of the delimitation exercise.
Mr Modi, through his three terms, has made no bones about the primacy of the executive, which he controls. He has rammed through his choice, wielding the BJP’s brute majority in the Lok Sabha, over appointment of the Chief Election Commissioner and the CBI director. He has tried changing the norms for the appointment of the apex judiciary. It is, therefore, likely that the Delimitation Commission will be peopled by those who enjoy the PM’s confidence.
A bigger, newer Parliament building is as big a signal as there can be that the Modi government is on track to raise the number of MPs from 543 to an unspecifiable number. This will have to be worked out by the Delimitation Commission, the Central and state governments, MPs, MLAs, political parties and civil society. Instead of a slanging match, the Opposition would do better talking about federal equilibrium and hitting the streets to mobilise popular support. Once delimitation is done, the law is such that it cannot be challenged in court.
Over the years, there has been a growing demand for a more representative legislature at the Centre and in the states. The current population to representative ratio is a crisis. Successive governments have upheld the principle of one vote-one value; to ensure that the number of constituents represented by an MP or MLA should be around the same in every state, barring exceptions. Nor can the federal equilibrium be upset.
If indeed, as the Carnegie Endowment’s India’s Emerging Crisis of Representation report indicates, India should have an 848- member Parliament, the federal equilibrium will be disturbed. It could produce very lop-sided representation. States where population has grown enormously, both Hindu and Muslim, without controversy over who is an illegal and should be weeded out of the voters’ list, like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, could make huge gains. Uttar Pradesh, a BJP bastion, could end up with 63 seats in
addition to its existing 80 seats, Rajasthan could double its seats from 25 to 50, Gujarat could nearly double its seats and Tamil Nadu could end up with adding a paltry 10 seats, while Karnataka would get an additional 13 seats and West Bengal would add 18 seats to its current 42 seats. Peculiarly, Kerala would neither gain nor lose; it would be stuck with 20 seats, as would most of the Northeast, barring Assam.
Every delimitation is contentious; a delimitation that is divisive and contentious is a dangerous exercise in a polity already riven with fault lines. If the BJP-ruled North has huge numbers in the Lok Sabha and Opposition-ruled states have disproportionately fewer MPs, it could turn the divide into a chasm over political, ideological and geographical terms.
India hasn’t so far indulged in large-scale “gerrymandering”: the political manipulation of electoral constituency or district boundaries. The fear is that readjustments on constituency boundaries could be fixed to neutralise “vote bank” politics, based on caste, religion, community, group, ethnicity or language.
It will be problematic if the Prime Minister creates the legacy of a deeply divided country in terms of geographical representation. That may not be a desirable target for Mr Modi, the BJP and RSS in the long term.
Shikha Mukerjee is a senior journalist based in Kolkata
