Syed Ata Hasnain | J&K to B’desh: India needs to watch its hybrid threats

With much happening in the strategic security environment from the moment of the imminence of the arrival of Trump 2.0, there have been worldwide efforts towards finding the sweet spots which will deliver security and stability in the new Donald Trump era. Fortunately, India is one of those nations which has continuity in government with a history of good relationship with US President Donald Trump. It is thus simpler to come to terms with the emerging readjustment and not be perturbed by anything outlandish.

Yet, as the world re-adjusts and large conflicts and standoffs start to cool and heat, many bubbles below the surface could also get re-energised. That is why it’s important for India to keep reviewing its older conflicts, now perceived as smaller conflicts, which may seemingly have stabilised but need only a few sparks to bring to life.

I usually have an eye focused on the map of Jammu and Kashmir and what I see today does not make me happy except the relative lack of political turbulence, which is good for the Union territory’s social and economic well-being. I am equally concerned about recent developments in Bangladesh. There is no concrete evidence to prove it, but when Bangladesh engulfed itself in flames on August 5 last year, our attention for long had been on the Jammu region of J&K. Many of us had then felt that with Pakistan’s economy teetering and its state of politics none too stable either, there was hardly a possibility that it could risk crossing the Rubicon by initiating something outrageous -- a big terrorist action, for example.

Pakistan, instead followed a smart strategy of small contact operations involving hit-and-run strikes by well-trained terrorists with purportedly a mix of regulars, in a terrain of its choice where several deployment voids of our security forces existed. That kept things going for Pakistan, the bleeding process drawing ire in India, some redeployment and considerable heartburning. It was all a part of the infamous “thousand cuts” strategy of Gen. Zia-ul Haq, who had sworn retribution against India for the loss of Bangladesh.

Was it coincidence then, that on India’s other flank, Bangladesh came into meltdown shortly thereafter, creating India’s potential third front -- a gleeful development for the “Deep State” in Pakistan and perhaps “Deep State” elements in the Biden administration in the United States, none too happy with India’s rise. The then US establishment perhaps chose to use the Pakistan proxy to overthrow Sheikh Hasina and risk emplacement of a stopgap Islamist rule. It was the age-old strategy; the whole Jammu affair stank of being a Pakistani ruse to divert attention to achieve something strategic elsewhere: Bangladesh.

When things start to happen and are of a nature quite similar to those that happened in the Jammu region in 2024, hackles in India should go up. In this month itself my hackles are already touching the collar as I observe first a series of pinprick-like contacts in Kashmir -- a former soldier kidnapped and killed, attempts to deliberately provoke the security forces, ceasefire violations, unexplained breaches of the Line of Control, a defeated action of a “border action team” in sync with the ominous landmark of February 5 and the planting of IEDs close to the LoC fence, with mine casualties occurring on our side.

Six to eight months ago the Jammu region was on fire, then with a group of suspected Pakistani regulars operating with impunity; and then all went quiet. The recurrence of a foiled BAT incident, again with some Pakistani regulars, reflects the intent of upping the ante. We should examine these events in the light of other developments in Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan is worsening, with both the Durand Line and the western tracts all under tension. Internally the political scene is once again inching towards potential chaos, with Imran Khan’s incarceration and the deep political fragmentation. The Pakistani “Deep State” is perceptibly losing confidence with the predicament it finds itself in, but it’s also gaining confidence with the developments in Bangladesh, where the seeds of turbulence and anti-India sentiments were sown by it, to be reaped at an opportune moment. That moment is now.

Noticeably, the six-month anniversary of the August 5 Dhaka meltdown coincided with this year’s Kashmir Solidarity Day. On February 5, protesters in Dhaka attacked and demolished the residence of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the nation’s founding leader and father of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. There was no trigger for a renewed effort at bringing the streets to boil but yet violence began and a number of urban hubs once again saw the targeting of minorities. That remains a sensitive issue which touches a raw nerve in India, where the majority remains peeved by the lackadaisical approach towards the safety of minorities. Instigated by pro-Pakistan radical elements, this appears to form a part of a larger strategy to create antipathy and pressure on the Indian government. The interim government in Bangladesh does not have the capability to curb this effectively through Operation Devil Hunt, which has been launched by the security elements.

How does this latest Pakistani strategy work? Its intent is to keep the Indian intelligence and security establishment on tenterhooks through activation of J&K with small acts while keeping India’s attention rooted towards Bangladesh with inimical acts and gestures from time to time. The hybrid conflict that Pakistan has been fighting against India has just expanded with “touch points” identified which would have ramifications on the Indian security psyche; the visit of the ISI delegation to Rangpur, close to the Siliguri Corridor, is a case in point. This hybrid strategy is yet in the experimental phase with small actions with intent of studying response. Geographical expansion of the strategy from J&K to Bangladesh is bound to also witness an enhancement of the level of pressure through bolder acts with an unpredictable nature.

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi correctly touched upon Bangladesh in his talks with President Donald Trump, the intricate connections of hybrid war in the subcontinent are extremely difficult to explain and appreciate. Diplomatic efforts at putting pressure on Pakistan through US linked leverage must continue with vigor. However, most importantly, this emerging strategy of Pakistan must be war-gamed at the strategic level and counters and leverages found to neutralise these efforts which aim to tie down India in a web of non-issues and divert our aim from the larger aim of nation-building.